FLORIDA — States must redraw district lines every ten years, following the U.S. Census. Redistricting involves redrawing district boundaries to create equal districts based on revised population figures. Reapportionment relocates the number of districts in the state, given the shift in population data.
Florida added a new congressional seat due to population growth, and each congressional district was redrawn. Republicans currently hold 16 congressional seats, while Democrats have 11 seats.
Democrats face a challenging environment this election cycle due to high inflation, immigration issues, and perception of election integrity. There is also a pattern historically of a political party in the White House affecting voters’ choice for congressional seats in Congress. In 1994 and 2016, both the House and the Senate changed control. In three previous elections since the Reagan era, different parties gained control of just the House or the Senate in the same election. And in one instance in 2012, Congress remained split after the election.
We won’t see the effects of the newly drawn districts until after the November midterm election. But Florida may send at least six new members to Congress this year – those more closely aligned with Trump than current House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, who could be the next speaker if the Republicans retake the House.
DeSantis’ redistricting push may lead to a more Republican-leaning Florida congressional delegation for many years ahead. Once a swing state, Florida would continue to shift further red.
Democrats have raised concerns over the new redistricting map. But legal challenges to block the revisions ahead of the midterms failed.
5th District
Geography: Parts of Duval and St. Johns counties
This district was completely redrawn. Representative John Rutherford (R) and Al Lawson (D) will vacate parts of the new territory.
Open Seat
Percentage of votes in last presidential race:
Trump 2020: 57%
Biden 2020: 41%
7th District
Geography: Parts of Seminole and Volusia counties
Republicans have eight primary candidates with almost $2 million in combined campaign funds in this race.
Open seat previously represented by Rep. Stephanie Murphy (D)
Percentage of votes in last presidential race:
Trump 2020: 52%
Biden 2020: 47%
13th District
Geography: Parts of Pinellas County
Republicans have three primary candidates with almost $1.4 million in combined campaign funds in this race.
Democrats will not have a primary. The expected Democratic nominee is Eric Lynn, a former Pentagon official with $1 million in campaign funds in this race.
Open seat previously represented by Rep. Charlie Crist (D)
Percentage of votes in last presidential race:
Trump 2020: 53%
Biden 2020: 46%
27th District
Geography: Parts of Miami-Dade County
Incumbent: Maria Elvira Salazar (R) with $1.5 million in campaign funds.
Democrats have two primary candidates with almost $1.4 million in combined campaign funds in this race.
Percentage of votes in last presidential race:
Trump 2020: 50%
Biden 2020: 49%
28th District
Geography: Miami and the Keys
Incumbent: Carlos Gimenez (R) with $1.3 million in campaign funds.
Democrats have two primary candidates with almost $1.4 million in combined campaign funds in this race.
Percentage of votes in last presidential race:
Trump 2020: 53%
Biden 2020: 47%
23rd District
Geography: Parts of Broward and Palm Beach counties
Jim Pruden is the Republican frontrunner, polling ahead of half a dozen candidates.
This South Florida district brought out a large group of Democrats. Two frontrunners have over $1 million in campaign funds.
Open seat previously represented by Rep. Ted Deutch (D)
Percentage of votes in last presidential race:
Trump 2020: 43%
Biden 2020: 56%
4th District
Geography: Parts of Duval, Clay, and Nassau counties
This district is a new congressional seat with no incumbent.
Current Florida Senate President Aaron Bean is the most prominent candidate. Republican Erick Aguilar, a Navy veteran, sent emails soliciting donations to republican donors. The emails did not mention his name but were written to suggest that donations would go to Trump, and the email header used Governor DeSantis’ name. WinRed, the popular platform Republicans use to process campaign contributions, found the emails misleading. In an email to POLITICO, WinRed stated that Aguilar had been banned from using its service.
Democrats have two candidates but trail in campaign funds.
New seat with no incumbent
Percentage of votes in last presidential race:
Trump 2020: 53%
Biden 2020: 46%
15th District
Geography: Parts of Hillsborough, Pasco, and Polk counties
This district was a GOP seat, often challenged by Democrats. After being redrawn, the race became very competitive with multiple Republican candidates with close to $1 million in campaign funds.
Democrats have only one candidate who has $1 million in campaign funds.
Percentage of votes in last presidential race:
Trump 2020: 51%
Biden 2020: 48%
